On April 28th, the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for national economic and social development of Guangdong Province (the outline) was officially released. The outline sets out 22 key indicators across six major areas including economic development, innovation-driven development, people's well-being, urban-rural and regional development, green and low-carbon development as well as security, setting an average annual GDP growth target of around 5% for the province in the next five years.

A notable feature of the outline is that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is given a dedicated chapter and tops the list of key tasks. It calls for sustained efforts to advance the development of the GBA and to build a dynamic, internationally competitive, world-class bay area and city cluster.

In terms of scientific and technological innovation and people's livelihood security, the outline notes that Guangdong's total R&D spending will register an average annual increase of 5.0% throughout the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The growth of residents' per capita disposable income will keep in line with GDP growth, and the proportion of nursing beds in elderly care institutions will rise from 75% in 2025 to 80%.

The outline proposes that by 2030, the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population at the county level will reach around 50%. The ratio of per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents will narrow from 2.27 in 2025 to 2.05. In addition, the gross ocean product (GOP) is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan. In 2024, Guangdong's GOP had already exceeded 2 trillion yuan, ranking first nationwide for 31 consecutive years and contributing 27.3% to nominal regional economic growth. Accelerating the development of the marine economy and upgrading and expanding marine industries will be a key priority for Guangdong.

In promoting the environmental conservation and green development of Guangdong, the outline confirms that the province will achieve its carbon peaking goal as scheduled before 2030 and continue to maintain a leading position nationwide in reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP.